Know yourretention risk beforeyour best people leave.

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Research evidence

Can employee turnover really be predicted?Yes, employee turnover can be predicted better than chance inside a defined dataset. That is the modest conclusion the evidence supports. It does not follow…Ribes, Touahri and Perthame (2017), preprint4 sourcesPeople analytics needs more than consentEmployee data does not become ethically neutral because a consent box exists. People analytics changes the balance of knowledge and power inside a workplace.…Zieglmeier, Gierlich-Joas and Pretschner (2023), peer reviewed3 sourcesWhat turnover research finds before an employee leavesTurnover risk does not live in one universal list of predictors. It appears in the interaction between a person's employment history, the surrounding workplace…Ribes, Touahri and Perthame (2017), preprint3 sourcesWhere employee attrition models breakAttrition models often fail before the algorithm becomes the interesting part. The dataset may not represent a real employer. The evaluation may ignore time. A…Ribes, Touahri and Perthame (2017), preprint6 sources
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Where the numbers came from

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Where the 33% of salary turnover cost comes fromProvenance: Modelling assumption. The number is an input its author adopted for a calculation, not a result they measured. This describes how the figure is…Professional Advantage2 sourcesThree disengagement figures, pointing the wrong wayProvenance: Attributed, not found. The figure is credited to an organisation whose published work, as far as we can find, does not contain it; the nearest…Gallup, 2012 Q12 Meta-Analysis, Summary of Findings. Gallup's own address for the meta-analysis now returns 404; the copy that resolves is mirrored at employeeengagement.com5 sourcesGallup's 70% manager claim is real. Almost every retelling of it is not.Provenance: Method not published. The finding is the author's own and consistently stated, but no method, sample or technique is published, so nobody outside…Gallup1 source

A diagnostic you can inspect.

Answer the factors, see the signal, then read the research behind the result. Nothing disappears behind a score.

  1. 01Describe the team

    Nine focused questions establish the conditions around retention risk.

  2. 02Read the signal

    The result identifies where the pressure appears strongest.

  3. 03Check the evidence

    Sources and boundaries stay attached to the findings they support.

Find the part of the system that needs attention.

Factor. Finding. Source. Boundary. Then a decision you can defend.

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